Overview
- The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional says El Niño has been active in Argentina for about two months and likely contributed to the gray, wetter conditions seen in the Buenos Aires metro area during July and early August.
- Short-term forecasts show a brief improvement with partly sunny skies on Wednesday 19 August followed by variable clouds and gusts up to about 50 km/h on Thursday 20 August.
- SMN projects a multi‑month shift toward higher odds of precipitation and extended cloudiness across many provinces, and it estimates an roughly 80% chance that El Niño will influence rainfall in the AMBA in October.
- Meteorologists caution that a strong El Niño combined with climate change and the seasonally wet period raises the likelihood of extreme events but says specific extremes cannot yet be forecast with confidence.
- Local officials in provinces such as Santa Fe are preparing health and response plans and residents should watch October rainfall and seasonal forecasts for potential impacts on flooding and public services.