Overview
- The Atlantic hit its climatological peak on Sept. 10 and remains unusually quiet with five named storms and no hurricanes so far this season.
- Forecasters attribute the lull to a strong or super El Niño boosting upper-level wind shear and to widespread Saharan dust and dry air that hinder storm development in the Main Development Region.
- Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic is far below normal at roughly 4.4 ACE, while the Eastern and Central Pacific have produced about 15–16 named storms and multiple hurricanes.
- Officials and researchers warn the season could still produce impactful storms because the Gulf of Mexico has very warm waters and locally lower shear that could favor late development.
- Agencies expect overall below-average Atlantic activity through November but urge preparedness because a single late storm can still cause major local damage and flooding.