Overview
- Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, NOAA and regional centers confirm El Niño is active and showing strong ocean‑atmosphere coupling that favors an intense event.
- CIIFEN and multi‑model ensembles assign high probability to a very strong to exceptional peak in October–December 2026, making extreme seasonal shifts more likely than usual.
- Regional projections from the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario foresee much higher autumn rainfall in the agricultural heartland, with estimates around 30% above normal in October rising to roughly 70–90% above normal in November–December.
- Provincial authorities in Santa Fe have declared a hydro‑emergency and started canal cleaning, embankments and pumping works to reduce flood risk, while Mexican scientists at UNAM warn of prolonged heat, drought and fire risks that could extend into 2027.
- Forecasts remain probabilistic: unusually large sea‑surface and subsurface warm anomalies and a negative Southern Oscillation Index point to intensity, but agencies stress local impacts will depend on how atmospheric patterns and river basins evolve and urge following short‑term alerts.