Overview
- Scientists and national meteorological services warned Friday that Niño 3.4 sea‑surface anomalies are near +3°C and that multiple models show a very strong El Niño likely to persist into early‑ to mid‑2027.
- A prospective analysis from the Climate Impact Lab estimates about 451,000 additional heat‑related deaths from June 2026 through February 2027 and forecasts a roughly 1.2°C rise in global land temperatures.
- The same study projects about a 44% rise in extreme‑heat days and identifies the Sahel, Southeast Asia, India, Brazil and parts of the United States as high‑burden areas.
- Early real‑world signals already match expectations: Argentina recorded historic rains in northern Patagonia and Peru's SENAMHI reported atypical downpours in Tumbes and Piura with the Tumbes river tripling its flow in hours.
- Governments and emergency agencies are scaling preparedness measures, including Argentina’s ENOS 2026/2027 plan, enhanced hydrometeorological monitoring, heat‑warning systems and targeted measures to protect vulnerable populations, and experts warn impacts could strain food, water and health systems into 2027.