Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday classified the current El Niño as “very strong” and estimated an about 83% chance it will become a record‑breaking event by early 2027.
- The World Meteorological Organization says the event is firmly established and nearly certain to persist through February 2027 while several national centres and models point to a December peak.
- Japan’s Meteorological Agency reported a September hotspot about 4°C above its baseline in a monitored tropical Pacific patch, the highest value in its records and a sign of unusually extreme ocean heat.
- U.S. seasonal forecasts favor above‑normal winter precipitation for California and the southern tier, prompting Governor Gavin Newsom’s state of emergency and preparations for floods, erosion and mudslides.
- Scientists warn the event will change odds rather than guarantee outcomes: it raises global temperatures on top of a warmer climate baseline, threatens crops and commodities, stresses insurance and coastal systems, and could drive excess heat deaths and regional droughts or floods.