Overview
- The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared El Niño active on Tuesday, June 16, following earlier advisories from NOAA and other international agencies that signalled sustained tropical Pacific warming.
- Multiple seasonal models and international ensembles now project a strong to very strong event with some runs forecasting record‑high Niño3.4 sea‑surface temperature anomalies later in 2026.
- Forecasts point to likely drier, hotter conditions for much of southern and eastern Australia and an increased risk of droughts and heatwaves, while parts of the Americas may see heavier rainfall.
- Indian authorities and Pacific island agencies have begun contingency planning for a weaker monsoon and elevated drought risk, and governments are issuing guidance for water, agriculture and emergency services.
- Scientists stress substantial uncertainty remains about peak strength and local outcomes and warn that human‑caused warming raises baseline temperatures and can amplify heat, fires and other extremes tied to El Niño.