Overview
- NOAA issued an El Niño advisory in June 2026 confirming the event has begun and forecasters now assign a high probability it will persist into late 2026 and early 2027.
- Multi‑model ensembles including the NMME and CPC show many runs projecting very strong warming, with some November–January scenarios exceeding 2°C Niño 3.4 anomalies.
- The developing event increases the risk of a weaker Indian monsoon, drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, heavier rains in parts of the Americas, and disruptions to fisheries and crop yields.
- Analysts warn a prolonged, strong El Niño could push up internationally traded food prices and add to inflationary pressure, though near‑record global wheat and rice stocks may limit immediate supply shocks.
- Scientists stress substantial uncertainty because predictability falls at long lead times, so outcomes will depend on the exact pattern and timing of Pacific warming and on how governments and markets respond.