Overview
- Meteorologists confirmed an emerging El Niño that weakened the southwest monsoon and left monitored reservoirs at about one-quarter of capacity as of July 2, tightening water supplies for hydro plants.
- Hydropower generation fell sharply in June, down nearly 21% year‑on‑year and averaging about 6.3 GW less output, while coal-fired generation rose roughly 20.7 GW to meet demand.
- Extremely hot weather pushed peak electricity use to a record 270.8 GW on May 21, increasing air‑conditioning loads and amplifying the shortfall in flexible generation.
- The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air projects a median generation gap of about 17.7 TWh to June 2027 if wind and hydro remain weak, and analysts say modest battery fleets could prevent large solar curtailments.
- Policy advisers including the EAC‑PM are urging fast deployment of grid-scale batteries, transmission upgrades and demand-response tools to avoid prolonged coal reliance, protect farmers from irrigation shortfalls and limit near‑term emissions.