Overview
- U.S. federal forecasters announced the arrival of El Niño in June and July model ensembles now assign a high probability it will be very strong and may persist into early 2027.
- An aggregation of 667 ensemble members by Zeke Hausfather shows unusually tight model agreement and projects a high chance this event will reach or exceed recent record Niño 3.4 peaks.
- A Peterson Institute estimate finds roughly $686 billion in one-year global GDP losses if this El Niño matches the 1997–98 event, with cumulative losses rising to about $3.1 trillion over five years if policy buffers are not deployed.
- The worst economic and humanitarian effects are likely to concentrate in strongly 'teleconnected' tropical lower- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador, Peru and Indonesia through crop failures, infrastructure damage and disease shocks.
- Analysts and agencies urge rapid preparedness measures, including pre-approved concessional credit from multilateral development banks, more funding for the World Food Program and pre-positioned food and relief supplies to blunt inflationary supply shocks and prevent avoidable multi-year damage.