Overview
- The National Hurricane Center and major forecast models show no expected tropical development this week and little organized activity into mid‑August.
- A strengthening, possibly “super,” El Niño is increasing upper‑level wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which disrupts thunderstorms before they can organize into tropical cyclones.
- Large plumes of Saharan dust are drying the mid‑Atlantic atmosphere and reducing cloud growth, and stronger winds have kept sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region cooler than recent years.
- Near‑record warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and along the U.S. East Coast mean coastal and near‑shore systems could still form and cause local impacts, so residents should keep preparedness plans current.
- Forecast uncertainty rises later in August because some long‑range model runs hint hostile conditions may ease, and climatology shows most activity occurs in August–October so a single storm could still be consequential.