EIA Sees U.S. Solar and Storage Soaring Through 2027 to Reshape Power Mix

Overview

• Nearly 70 GW of new utility-scale solar is scheduled for 2026–2027, a 49% increase in operating capacity versus end-2025.
• Utility-scale solar generation is projected to rise from 290 billion kWh in 2025 to 424 billion kWh in 2027, lifting the combined solar and wind share from about 18% to about 21%.
• Texas’s ERCOT is expected to drive much of the buildout, with solar generation growing from 56 to 106 billion kWh and battery storage capacity expanding from roughly 15 GW to 37 GW by end-2027.
• EIA expects total U.S. electricity generation to reach about 4,423 billion kWh in 2027, with natural gas at 1,696 billion kWh in 2026 and 1,711 billion kWh in 2027 as its share declines from a 42% peak in 2024 to 39% in 2027.
• Coal-fired generation, up 13% in 2025 to 731 billion kWh due to cold weather and high gas prices, is forecast to fall to about 661 billion kWh in 2027 as retirements accelerate.