Overview

• Ecuadorians head to the polls Sunday to decide whether President Daniel Noboa will secure a full term or if Luisa González, a leftist candidate and protégé of former President Rafael Correa, will take office.
• The election follows years of escalating cartel violence, with the murder rate increasing by over 400% since 2019, and widespread economic hardships tied to post-pandemic recovery struggles.
• Noboa, 37, has emphasized his hardline security measures, including deploying the military to combat organized crime, while González has criticized his approach, calling for peace-building initiatives instead.
• To win outright in the first round, a candidate must secure at least 50% of the vote or 40% with a 10-point lead; otherwise, a runoff election will be held in April.
• Public sentiment reflects deep frustration with crime and governance, with many voters undecided or skeptical of both leading candidates' ability to deliver meaningful change.