Overview

• Payrolls have averaged just 35,000 monthly gains over the past three months after sharp downward revisions reduced June’s tally to 14,000.
• Consumer spending has stagnated while construction and manufacturing sectors are showing clear contraction.
• JPMorgan economists say this scale of labor-demand slide is a classic warning signal of an impending downturn.
• Core inflation accelerated to 2.8 percent in June, keeping borrowing costs elevated and limiting the Fed’s options.
• Analysts point to escalating U.S. tariffs and restrictive immigration policies as key drags on growth and labor force expansion.