Particle.news
Download on the App Store
5 ARTICLES
·
last mo.

Economists Warn of Near-Certain U.S. Recession in 2025 Due to High Tariffs

Apollo's chief economist predicts a 90% recession probability and a 4% GDP contraction if steep import duties, including 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, remain in place.

Shipping containers at the Port of Houston in Texas on April 8, 2025.
The logo for Citibank is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., August 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
Several economists have said the odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 have increased.
Image

Overview

  • Torsten Sløk of Apollo Global Management forecasts a 90% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025 if current tariffs persist, with GDP projected to drop by up to 4 percentage points.
  • Small businesses, which employ 110 million Americans and drive $4.2 trillion in private investment, are particularly vulnerable to the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.
  • Sløk warns of widespread small business bankruptcies, canceled orders, and halted shipments due to insufficient liquidity to manage higher import costs.
  • JPMorgan Asset Management has updated its recession probability to 60%, citing the economic strain caused by fluctuating and elevated tariff policies.
  • President Trump’s April 9 decision to temporarily reprieve most tariffs while escalating duties on Chinese goods has intensified economic uncertainty and market volatility.