Overview

• Germany has "passed the trough," the autumn report says, but growth is seen as weak at 0.2% this year, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, driven largely by expansive fiscal policy.
• Institutes caution that the 500‑billion‑euro special fund props up activity without fixing structural problems, with much spending directed to the military, roads and civil engineering.
• Bosch’s plan to cut roughly 13,000 jobs is cited by officials as a hard blow to the industrial base, intensifying pressure to stabilize the economy.
• The promised "Autumn of Reforms" is slipping as several initiatives remain in commissions, with CDU figures urging expectation management and visible outcomes likely only from winter onward.
• Bürgergeld has become a leadership test: Merz declared it Chefsache, Labour Minister Bärbel Bas said there is no rift and her ministry has a draft, coalition principals are negotiating sanctions within legal limits, and a bill is targeted for October as broader changes follow next year.