Overview
- DIW chief Marcel Fratzscher calls the proposal a serious mistake that could push Germany back into recession, warning of several hundred thousand near-term job losses.
- Economist Jens Südekum says employment growth now depends on people with migration backgrounds as the domestic workforce shrinks, making large-scale returns economically unsound.
- Analysts note many refugees who arrived since 2015 are integrated and employed in system-critical fields such as healthcare and elder care, so mass removals would strain essential services.
- The CSU plan includes resuming deportation flights to Syria and Afghanistan and returning most Syrian refugees, even as official data show asylum applications have been declining.
- Legal and logistical assessments suggest only limited numbers could be removed and that individual protection claims would face court review, while experts support faster expulsions for criminals or those refusing to integrate.