Overview
- Forecasts for the December CPI range from a dip to 3.1% to rises as high as 3.6%, with estimates from S&P, Barclays, Pantheon, Deutsche Bank and Capital Economics diverging.
- Analysts say airfares likely surged by about 30% from November and hotel prices rose with festive demand, temporarily lifting headline inflation.
- The Office for National Statistics’ price-collection date is seen as pivotal because volatile travel costs varied sharply across the month.
- Pantheon’s Rob Wood cautions that the data would not justify aggressive Monetary Policy Committee easing this year, citing persistent wage and price pressures.
- Industry figures from the British Retail Consortium show food inflation ticking up to 3.3% in December, underscoring ongoing household cost pressures even as the broader trend is expected to ease toward 2% later in 2026.