Overview
- A Reuters poll shows 82% of economists expect a 25-basis-point reduction at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, with futures pricing implying roughly an 85–90% chance.
- Despite market consensus, Fed minutes and public remarks point to a split FOMC, with several officials arguing to hold rates and others backing additional easing.
- New York Fed President John Williams has signaled support for lowering rates, while Governor Stephen Miran has pressed for a larger 50-basis-point cut.
- Recent private indicators highlight labor softness, including an ADP-reported drop of 32,000 private payrolls in November and a surge in announced layoffs this year.
- Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned a December move is not a foregone conclusion, with inflation still above the 2% target and a data gap from a 43-day shutdown heightening uncertainty ahead of his guidance and the SEP.