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Economists See 2026 Consumption Flat, While Arriazu Projects Supply-Led Upside

Higher saving rates alongside heavier household debt are expected to restrain demand through 2026.

Overview

  • At CAC events after the vote, analysts said there will be no consumption boom next year, with spending likely to stabilize or edge lower.
  • Ecolatina data show households raised the saving share of income from about 6% in late 2023 to roughly 16% by September as fixed costs rose and discretionary budgets shrank.
  • Household indebtedness roughly doubled over 18 months to near 7% of GDP, with credit use rising from a low base and delinquency rates hitting multi‑year highs.
  • Formal salaried jobs are declining while self‑employment grows, and economists expect durables to fare better than mass‑consumption goods as imports and credit pick up.
  • Offering a conditional counterpoint, Ricardo Arriazu said the worst of the trade balance has passed and sketched a 2026 growth scenario near 6% on an agricultural rebound and new energy and mining investment.