Overview

• Analysts interviewed by CNBC say tariff pass-through is starting to show up in prices, with Carmen Reinhart noting early effects and Mark Zandi saying inflation pressure is building as consumption could slow.
• Stanford’s Neale Mahoney estimates that with imports at roughly 10% of U.S. consumption, a 15‑point average tariff increase would lift overall prices about 1.5%, with noticeable increases for items like coffee, toys, clothing and furniture.
• Business leaders and economists describe a climate of policy uncertainty that is discouraging capital spending, with James Pethokoukis and Robert Reich warning investment decisions are being delayed and Danielle DiMartino Booth saying re‑shoring needs multi‑year certainty.
• Small import‑reliant firms are under strain, with Dilawar Syed citing that 97% of U.S. importers are small businesses and recounting a grocer who received an unexpected tariff bill near $20,000 as NSBA survey data show sentiment at a 15‑year low.
• Trump says the tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., while critics call them a regressive tax; Rep. Ro Khanna says he will pursue bipartisan legislation targeting tariffs on coffee and Peter Boockvar estimates a 15% baseline would equal about $500 billion in new taxes on $3.3 trillion of imports.