Overview

• A Reuters poll of 61 economists expects the RBI to trim its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 6 and by another 25 basis points in August.
• India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.3% last fiscal year from over 9% the year before, reinforcing the case for a growth-supportive policy stance.
• The projected total of 100 basis points of easing would mark the shortest and shallowest rate-cutting cycle by the RBI in more than ten years.
• The RBI’s Annual Report signals an accommodative monetary policy while cautioning that global trade tensions and geopolitical risks could affect growth and inflation.
• Economists also forecast GDP growth averaging 6.3% this fiscal year and 6.5% next year, and predict the stock market may hit a new high by end-2025.