Overview
- Of 37 forecasters surveyed, 36 predict a 25 basis-point reduction at the November 6 decision, with one expecting the first cut in December.
- Median policy-rate forecasts hold at 7.00% for end-2025 and 6.50% for end-2026, with estimates ranging from 6.0% to 7.0%.
- The peso outlook strengthens to 18.80 per U.S. dollar for end-2025 from 19.00 in the prior survey, with 19.50 maintained for end-2026.
- For October, respondents expect monthly headline inflation of 0.36% and core of 0.27%, with the headline estimate below the 0.45% reported in the previous poll.
- Median GDP projections point to 0.5% growth for the current year and a slight upward revision to 1.4% for 2026 from 1.3%.