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Economists Debate Recession Risks as U.S. Economic Uncertainty Grows

Concerns over tariffs, stock market declines, and consumer confidence fuel speculation about a potential 2025 downturn.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 11: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 11, 2025 in New York City. Following the worst day for the markets this year, the Dow was down nearly 500 points in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Experts remain divided on the likelihood of a 2025 recession, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 20% chance within the next year, up from 15%.
  • Key recession indicators include declining GDP, reduced consumer spending, falling business investment, and rising unemployment rates.
  • President Trump's tariff policies and trade disputes with major partners like China, Mexico, and Canada are cited as factors contributing to economic unease.
  • Economists emphasize that recessions are often identified only after they begin, as GDP and other metrics are lagging indicators.
  • Financial experts advise individuals to prepare by reducing discretionary spending, paying down high-interest debt, and building emergency savings.