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Economic Indicators Signal U.S. Recession Likely Underway

Sharp declines in consumer confidence, volatile bond markets, and falling gas prices point to a potential recession linked to President Trump’s tariffs, though it has not yet been officially declared.

Overview

  • Consumer sentiment dropped 11% in April to a historic low of 50.8, according to a University of Michigan survey, reflecting weakened demand tied to tariff impacts.
  • Treasury yields have shown significant volatility, signaling reduced investor confidence in the U.S. economy and the dollar's stability.
  • Gas prices have fallen below $3 per gallon, a trend attributed to declining global economic growth expectations rather than domestic energy policies.
  • Economists suggest the recession may differ from recent ones, as it appears to stem directly from reduced consumer demand caused by tariffs, rather than corporate-driven factors.
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has not officially declared a recession, but experts warn that current economic conditions align with early signs of contraction.

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