Economic Indicators Signal Potential U.S. Recession as Growth Slows

Consumer confidence drops, manufacturing weakens, and policy uncertainty grows under Trump administration.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve projects Q1 2025 GDP growth at negative 2.8%, the weakest since the COVID-19 recession in 2020.
Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, with inflation expectations rising and retail spending slowing significantly.
Trump administration policies, including higher tariffs on major trading partners and cuts to government programs, are contributing to economic uncertainty.
Housing market data shows a continued slowdown, with declining housing starts and homebuilder sentiment below expansion levels.
Despite historically low unemployment at 4.0%, job creation has slowed, and weekly jobless claims are increasing.