Overview

• The Atlanta Federal Reserve projects Q1 2025 GDP growth at negative 2.8%, the weakest since the COVID-19 recession in 2020.
• Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, with inflation expectations rising and retail spending slowing significantly.
• Trump administration policies, including higher tariffs on major trading partners and cuts to government programs, are contributing to economic uncertainty.
• Housing market data shows a continued slowdown, with declining housing starts and homebuilder sentiment below expansion levels.
• Despite historically low unemployment at 4.0%, job creation has slowed, and weekly jobless claims are increasing.