Overview

• The assessment provides early, region-level estimates for the summer of 2025, identifying 96 areas hit by heat waves, 195 by drought, and 53 by floods across the EU.
• Sectoral impacts diverged, with heat suppressing labor productivity in construction and hospitality, drought damaging agriculture, and floods harming infrastructure and disrupting supply chains.
• Losses are distributed unevenly, with southern Europe facing greater heat and drought exposure, northern and central regions dealing with more floods, and smaller economies such as Malta, Cyprus, and Bulgaria especially vulnerable.
• Authors describe the figures as conservative because the model omits compound events, wildfires, hail and wind storms, absenteeism, factory slowdowns, and fiscal overruns, and they note that macroeconomic losses exceed typical insured damage tallies.
• Spain stands out in the country breakdown, with an estimated €12.2 billion loss in 2025 and a projected €34.8 billion annual hit by 2029, driven largely by drought.