Overview
- At Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, ECB vice‑president Luis de Guindos warned that highly valued US tech shares tied to AI could spur a sharp correction and pressure euro‑area nonbank balance sheets through liquidity mismatches and hedge‑fund leverage.
- Goldman Sachs said market pricing already reflects much of the AI upside, noting valuations have moved ahead of macro reality and could retrace if growth slows, even as it estimates multi‑trillion‑dollar long‑term revenue potential.
- JPMorgan highlighted the risk of a dot‑com‑style pattern and estimated the global AI infrastructure build‑out will exceed $5 trillion, raising sensitivity to financing conditions.
- Credit markets are flashing caution as tech bond spreads widen and Oracle’s debt falls about 5% since mid‑September, with Moody’s citing concentration in a few major AI customers alongside rising leverage.
- Recent findings from MIT and McKinsey indicate most companies have yet to record measurable revenue or profit gains from heavy AI spending, challenging assumptions underpinning elevated, highly concentrated market leaders.