Overview
- Accounts of the Oct. 29–30 meeting highlighted a "high option value" in waiting, with rates described as robust enough to manage shocks.
- Some policymakers said the rate‑cutting cycle may have ended, contingent on risks not materialising in the outlook.
- Market pricing now shows virtually no chance of a cut on Dec. 18 and roughly a one‑in‑three probability of further easing in 2026.
- The ECB’s October consumer survey put inflation expectations at 2.8% for one year ahead, 2.5% at three years, and 2.2% at five years, reinforcing a path near target.
- Latvia’s Martins Kazaks said it is too early to discuss another cut and stressed the 2026–27 projections, while Croatia’s Boris Vujcic urged avoiding policy micromanagement and cutting only if the inflation path declines without a rebound.