Overview
- Financial markets now assign roughly an 80–90% probability to a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase at the Sept. 15–16 meeting, a view that has prompted Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to revise their forecasts to expect a hike.
- Crude prices climbed above $100 a barrel after renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and threats to shipping routes, and that energy shock is feeding into higher headline inflation expectations.
- U.S. Treasury yields have moved toward the 5% area and the dollar has strengthened, which is making borrowing more expensive and creating valuation pressure on stocks and other risk assets.
- Crypto and tech markets show mixed signals: Bitcoin rallied near $77,000 with extreme sentiment readings even as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw weekly outflows, while AI-focused stocks fell after Anthropic’s CEO urged a slower pace of development.
- Market attention now turns to the Fed’s Sept. 15–16 statement and Kevin Warsh’s press conference for guidance on the path of policy plus Wednesday’s U.S. retail sales and CPI reports that could widen short-term volatility and influence future rate bets.