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3d ago

ECB Set to Hold Rates for Third Straight Meeting With Inflation at Target

Officials keep options open for another cut if trade shocks threaten to push inflation below goal.

EU flags hang outside the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, March 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
The ECB has kept interest rates on hold in recent months
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ECB President Christine Lagarde has said the central bank is in a 'good place' on interest rates

Overview

  • The Governing Council is expected to leave policy unchanged Thursday after 200 basis points of easing through June and a subsequent pause.
  • Inflation has settled around 2% and growth looks steady, giving the central bank room to wait while it assesses incoming data.
  • A Reuters poll of 88 economists projects no change now, and market pricing—echoing chief economist Philip Lane—assigns about a 50% chance of one more cut by next June.
  • Recent readings show firmer services activity and improving German sentiment, offset by weak industry, sharply lower exports to the United States, and concern over diverted Chinese goods.
  • The policy statement is due at 1315 GMT with Christine Lagarde’s press conference shortly after, and December projections are flagged as the next key test for any shift.