Overview

• The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%.
• August headline inflation edged up to 2.1%, and the bank now describes price growth as around its 2% objective.
• Staff projections put inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
• ECB staff see euro‑area GDP growth at 1.2% in 2025, 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, with the tariff deal bringing estimates close to the June baseline.
• Policy guidance remains data‑dependent on a meeting‑by‑meeting basis with no commitment to a preset rate path.