Overview
- The Governing Council kept the deposit rate at 2.00%, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, marking a fourth straight pause.
- Eurozone inflation was 2.1% in November, close to the 2% target, and recent remarks by Isabel Schnabel signaled the next move could be a hike rather than another cut.
- The succession race has begun early, with Schnabel saying she would be ready if asked and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel expressing interest.
- EU treaties cap Executive Board terms at eight years, complicating Schnabel’s path, and the presidency is likely to be decided within a wider Brussels personnel package as Luis de Guindos departs in May 2026 and Philip R. Lane a year later.
- Other names in the frame include Klaas Knot—whom Lagarde said would be a very good ECB president—and Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, with euro-area governments set to choose the successor.