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ECB Holds at 2% as Mortgage Costs Rise and 2026 Rate Stability Beckons

Capital‑market yields plus tighter bank checks are now shaping borrowing costs more than the ECB’s steady policy.

Overview

  • The ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% in December 2025, and several analysts expect little change through at least mid‑2026, with some seeing 2% still in place by year‑end.
  • Ten‑year mortgage offers have risen to roughly 3.7–3.8%, with experts judging a move closer to 4% in 2026 more likely than a return toward 3.5%.
  • Higher long‑term government bond yields, linked to increased public borrowing, are feeding through into pricier home loans and limiting prospects for meaningful relief.
  • Lenders are tightening underwriting, incorporating stricter valuations and energy‑efficiency criteria, which can raise costs or constrain financing for renovation‑heavy or poorly rated properties.
  • Savings rates have stabilized after earlier declines, with brief opportunities possible such as a January mortgage pricing dip and a planned 2026 market entry by Chase that could spur sharper competition for top deposit offers.