Overview

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook assigns a 60–80% chance of above-average rainfall from August through November for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia.
• July 2025 recorded the highest sea surface temperatures for that month since 1900, intensifying atmospheric moisture and bolstering rainfall potential.
• Daytime and night-time temperatures are forecast to exceed seasonal norms from August to October, with unusually warm nights expected across much of the east.
• Sydney has accumulated nearly 200 mm of rain in the first 11 days of August—its wettest early-month total since 1998—and is due for additional coastal showers and thunderstorms this week.
• Despite the wet signal, serious drought persists in parts of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia, where several seasons of sustained rain will be needed to ease deficits.