Overview
- IW calculations provided to Reuters on Aug. 21, 2026 show the 15–66 population in East German Flächenländer fell 23% from 10.05 million at end‑1995 to 7.74 million at end‑2025.
- The number of people aged 67 and over rose from 1.82 million to 3.06 million and the share of working‑age residents dropped from 70.9% to 62.7%, reducing the pool of locally available workers.
- The IW model projects that if migration stopped the 15–66 group would fall another 13.0% to 6.78 million by 2035 and that, at today’s employment rate, only about 45.3% of the population would be employed.
- IW economists say automation and AI can replace some tasks but cannot fully substitute for human labour in medical care, elder care and many craft trades, risking a feedback loop of service decline and outmigration.
- The findings sharpen the migration debate ahead of state elections in Sachsen‑Anhalt and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, where the AfD leads polls and pushes for tighter immigration and return policies while policymakers weigh migration, local investment and retention incentives.