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East Asian Emission Cuts Unmask Accelerated Global Warming

Cutting sulfate aerosols in East Asia has revealed about 0.07°C of hidden warming since 2010, an effect that will taper off once emissions reach a new steady state.

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Overview

  • Researchers estimate that cuts to sulfate aerosols in East Asia since 2010 have revealed about 0.07°C of additional global warming.
  • The study draws on eight climate models and updated emissions data to capture a roughly 75% reduction in regional sulfate emissions.
  • By omitting recent East Asian pollution cuts, the IPCC’s 2021 assessment of aerosol cooling underestimated this unmasking effect.
  • The acceleration in warming is expected to slow as sulfate aerosol levels reach a new steady state.
  • China’s aggressive air quality measures, which once addressed pollution responsible for about one million premature deaths annually, underlie these findings.