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Earth's Energy Imbalance Has Doubled Over Two Decades, Outpacing Models

Declining reflectivity from clouds and ice is fueling the unexpected surge in Earth's heat gain.

Overview

  • New analyses show the net energy imbalance at Earth's surface rose from about 0.6 to 1.3 watts per square metre on average over the past 20 years.
  • Observed heat accumulation now exceeds most climate model forecasts by more than twofold, suggesting key feedbacks are missing in current simulations.
  • Researchers point to reduced cloud albedo and melting ice as primary drivers of the accelerated heat uptake and potential positive feedback loop.
  • About 90% of the excess heat has been absorbed by the oceans, delaying surface warming but risking more severe long-term impacts like sea-level rise and extreme weather.
  • U.S. funding cuts and imminent satellite decommissions threaten critical climate monitoring missions, risking gaps in tracking Earth's energy budget.