Overview
- Researchers used data from more than 120 southern California seismometers to detect the Shenzhou-15 orbital module’s sonic booms and infer its speed, altitude, trajectory and fragmentation.
- The seismically derived path lay tens of kilometers from U.S. Space Command’s radar-based prediction, highlighting how reentry paths can diverge once objects begin to break apart.
- Authors say the method can complement radar and optical tracking by rapidly narrowing debris fall zones and contamination risks, though it is unlikely to provide advance warning.
- Effectiveness depends on dense seismic coverage and strong shock waves coupling into the ground within roughly 100 kilometers, and the Shenzhou-15 track cannot be fully validated because no debris was recovered.
- The team has applied the approach to dozens of other reentries, including failed SpaceX Starship tests, and aims to automate detection and publish catalogs for integration into monitoring pipelines.