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Earthquake Seismicity Found to Obscure Detection of Underground Nuclear Tests

Los Alamos scientists reveal a significant drop in detection rates for small nuclear explosions and seismic events due to overlapping waveforms, proposing new methods to address the issue.

Warning signs about radioactive materials erected at White Sands Missile Range following the detonation of the world's first atomic bomb in Socorro, New Mexico,
The Castle Bravo nuclear test, the detonation of the most powerful thermonuclear device ever tested by the United States.

Overview

  • A Los Alamos study confirms that overlapping seismic waveforms from earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions can reduce detection rates for nuclear tests from 97% to 37%.
  • The findings challenge a 2012 report that claimed earthquake tremors could not mask nuclear test signals, highlighting a critical vulnerability in seismic monitoring systems.
  • Seismic masking also impacts the detection of smaller earthquakes, with detection rates during swarms dropping from 92% to just 16%, potentially skewing seismic catalogs.
  • The study proposes a waveform injection method, using data from the Nevada National Security Site, to improve the ability to differentiate explosions from natural seismicity.
  • Despite these challenges, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification regime's reliance on radionuclide analysis and other markers ensures that seismic masking alone cannot fully conceal nuclear tests.