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Earnings-Led 4.7% State Pension Uplift Poised to Push More Retirees Into Tax

The final increase will be set after the ONS releases September inflation on October 22.

Overview

  • A 4.7% Triple Lock rise is widely expected for 2026/27, taking the full new State Pension to about £241.05 a week, or £12,534 a year, just shy of the £12,570 personal allowance.
  • With the personal allowance frozen until April 2028, experts warn many pensioners will cross the tax threshold and could receive end‑of‑year HMRC bills, risking confusion in April–May 2027 without clear communication.
  • The State Pension age will rise from 66 to 67 between April 2026 and 2028, affecting those born on or after 6 April 1960 and altering eligibility for benefits such as the Winter Fuel Payment, which some born just after late‑June 1960 are set to miss in 2026.
  • DWP data show retirement ages at record highs and 876,000 people aged 50–64 seeking or open to work, underscoring pressures on older workers as access to the State Pension is delayed.
  • A new Pension Commission led by Baroness Jeannie Drake, Sir Ian Cheshire and Professor Nick Pearce is reviewing long‑term reforms and could recommend alternatives to the Triple Lock in 2027.