Overview

• Political Data Inc. reports more than 1,034,000 ballots returned statewide, about 4.48 percent of those mailed, a pace comparable to Newsom’s 2021 recall election.
• Early returns skew Democratic, with roughly 530,000 Democrats and 293,000 Republicans voting, and turnout so far dominated by older and white voters.
• Recent polls show voters leaning yes, including Emerson College at 51–34, co/efficient at 54–36, and UC Berkeley IGS at 48–32.
• Rural groups and the California Farm Bureau are organizing against Prop 50, warning the plan would dilute farm-belt representation and shift resources toward urban priorities.
• The measure passed the Legislature 57–20 in the Assembly and 30–8 in the Senate, would govern the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections before the independent commission resumes, and goes to voters on November 4 with voter registration closing October 20.