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Early UK Flu Surge Driven by Drifted H3N2 Variant Prompts Urgent Vaccine Push

Vaccination still cuts hospital risk substantially despite a vaccine–virus mismatch, UKHSA says.

Overview

  • UKHSA reports subclade K of H3N2 now dominates infections, with test positivity in English hospitals at 11.9% and activity starting weeks earlier than usual.
  • Latest weekly figures show 3.9 flu hospitalisations per 100,000 people and 394 new admissions in England, with the highest rates in those aged 85+ and in young children.
  • Preliminary effectiveness estimates indicate roughly 70–75% protection against hospitalisation in vaccinated children and 30–40% in adults.
  • NHS leaders are activating contingency plans, expanding same‑day emergency care and urging immediate vaccination as an unusually early wave pressures services.
  • Researchers cite higher transmissibility with an estimated R of about 1.4 and note international detections, while routine US CDC flu reporting remains disrupted by the shutdown.