Overview
- Multiple forecast models indicate a developing stratospheric warming over the Arctic, with a strong height rise over the North Pole suggesting a rare early-season event.
- Such disruptions can weaken the polar vortex and allow Arctic air to surge south, though significant surface impacts generally lag the stratospheric changes.
- Meteorologist Dr Todd Crawford says there are very good odds of an early event this year and flags the biggest cold risk potentially in January.
- Severe Weather Europe’s Andrej Flis projects a collapse of polar circulation later this month with colder, snowier conditions more likely across the United States and Canada than Europe for now.
- Near-term hazards include UK Met Office warnings for unsettled weather, flooding risks and early Scottish Highlands snow, as well as forecasts of heavy snow and rain over the Thanksgiving weekend in parts of New York and New Jersey.