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Early Stratospheric Warming Deforms Polar Vortex, Boosting Odds of U.S. Cold Into December

Forecasts tilt colder after Thanksgiving, with scientists noting surface impacts from the upper-air shift typically arrive weeks later.

National Grid workers respond to a downed utility pole in Buffalo, New York, on December 27, 2022. - The monster storm that killed dozens in the United States over the Christmas weekend continued to inflict misery on New York state and air travelers nationwide Tuesday, as stories emerged of families trapped for days during the "blizzard of the century."
Thermometer on snow shows low temperatures - zero. Low temperatures in degrees Celsius and fahrenheit. Cold winter weather - zero celsius thirty two farenheit.
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Overview

  • Stratospheric diagnostics published Friday and Saturday indicate a sudden stratospheric warming is underway and deforming the polar vortex, with peak disruption aloft near Thanksgiving and surface effects expected to lag into early December.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors below-normal temperatures beginning around Nov. 25 across the central and northern U.S., with the chill expanding east into early December and an increased potential for heavy snow in parts of the central U.S.
  • Researchers emphasize rarity and uncertainty, noting only a few comparable November events since the 1950s and cautioning that not every disruption yields strong or prolonged surface impacts.
  • Regional forecasts translate the pattern into a brief Arctic shot around Thanksgiving in the Chicago area with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, while Great Lakes forecasters flag elevated lake-effect snow potential if colder air settles in.
  • The mechanism involves rapid warming and weakened winds in the stratosphere that displace or split the polar vortex, and forecasters say La Niña and other Pacific patterns could modulate how and where the cold concentrates.