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Early Six-Game Standings Predict Premier League Finishes as Transfer Spending Hits Record Levels

Five of the clubs leading after six matches typically secure top-six finishes thanks to record summer spending.

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Overview

  • Data from the past two seasons show that five of the clubs occupying top-six places after six league matches went on to finish in the top six.
  • Pre-season friendlies offer little forecasting value due to experimental line-ups and fitness-driven rotations.
  • Liverpool led Premier League summer outlays with about £267 million, followed by Chelsea (£240.2 million), Manchester United (£207 million), Arsenal (£192.6 million) and Manchester City (£153.4 million).
  • Final pre-season fixtures revealed defensive and goalkeeping gaps at elite clubs, with Liverpool using Wataru Endo as their only centre-back substitute and Chelsea retaining Robert Sanchez in goal.
  • Line-up experiments exposed tactical and injury risks across other top teams, from Tottenham’s miscast Pape Sarr at No. 10 to Newcastle’s reliance on an injured Anthony Gordon and Manchester United’s persistent midfield reliance on Casemiro.