Overview
- An Ipsos election‑night projection shows D66 narrowly in first place with about 27 seats, with Geert Wilders’ PVV projected around 25 after steep losses from its 37 seats in 2023.
- Rob Jetten’s D66 posts a dramatic rebound from nine seats in 2023, positioning the 38‑year‑old social‑liberal leader as a potential candidate to lead coalition negotiations.
- Pre‑vote polling and post‑vote snapshots indicate gains for the centrist CDA and setbacks or stagnation for several former partners, while the NSC collapsed after Pieter Omtzigt’s withdrawal.
- Most major parties reiterate they will not govern with Wilders, leaving the largest blocs short of a majority and pointing to protracted bargaining.
- Migration and asylum dominated the campaign after Wilders toppled the government in June over tougher asylum demands, alongside voter concerns over housing and the health system.