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Early Polar Vortex Weakness, DWD Alerts Signal Germany’s Abrupt Winter Turn

An unusually early stratospheric disturbance could raise the odds of extended cold into early December.

Overview

  • DWD issues nationwide frost warnings for Saturday with temperatures locally down to minus 10 to minus 15 degrees over snow and a high risk of black ice from Sunday into Monday, especially in the south and southwest.
  • Low-pressure system Talat is channeling polar maritime air into Germany, bringing a Sunday snow–rain front, freezing rain hazards in the south, and strong to near-stormy gusts along parts of the North Sea coast.
  • Sunday highs range from about minus 2 to plus 4 degrees after a clear, very cold night, with freezing rain and slick roads expected to disrupt Monday’s early commute in several regions.
  • Short‑range forecasts highlight a further snow event on Wednesday, 26 November, with 10–20 centimeters of fresh snow possible in southern and southeastern Germany and difficult travel conditions.
  • ECMWF guidance and expert assessments indicate a developing sudden stratospheric warming that is rare for November, increasing the probability of colder‑than‑normal conditions into early December with outcomes still uncertain.