Overview

• Authorities flag a risk of large hail around 3 cm, orkanartige Böen near 100–115 km/h, and very high short‑term rainfall in Baden-Württemberg and southern Bavaria.
• Models and DWD guidance point to rainfall rates of roughly 25–40 l/m² in a short time, locally up to about 60 l/m² in 3–6 hours in embedded thunderstorms.
• The convective band is forecast to push east and northeast overnight with widespread 20–50 l/m² from Franken toward Thüringen, Sachsen‑Anhalt and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern.
• The DWD has issued Vorabinformation and county‑level warnings for large parts of Bavaria and the south, urging people to secure loose objects and follow local alerts.
• Conditions are expected to improve from the west on Friday, with a brief return to sunnier, warmer late‑summer weather under high pressure over the weekend.