Overview
- ECMWF projections still allow for widespread snow reaching low elevations, though forecasters stress high uncertainty and regional variability.
- Multiple models, including ICON and GFS, indicate a sharp north–south transition zone for January 3–4 with a freezing-rain risk along the boundary.
- The DWD issues cautions for frost, slippery conditions and localized snow or graupel, with Berlin and Brandenburg also facing gusts up to 60–70 km/h.
- In NRW, earlier expectations of large, lowland snow totals have been scaled back, with notable accumulations now focused on higher terrain such as the Sauerland.
- Regional outlooks diverge: Baden-Württemberg may see flakes that do not stick, Bavaria faces snow and reifglätte, and some forecasts still flag 5–10 cm in lowlands and higher amounts in uplands, implying travel disruption where snow and ice take hold.