Overview
- The Deutscher Wetterdienst elevated warnings to Warnstufe 3 for parts of Oberbayern and Niederbayern on Wednesday, citing heavy thunderstorms with hail and typical six‑hour totals of 20–35 l/m² and local amounts up to about 50 l/m² in staulagen.
- Convection has been shifting east and southeast toward Austria and the Czech Republic while a separate North Sea front moves into northern Germany, bringing rain and strong coastal gusts.
- Meteorologists say a sharp cold front meeting warm, humid low‑level air and strong upper‑level winds has created an environment that can support organized storms, including isolated supercells and a very small tornado probability.
- Forecasters expect gusts commonly around 60–70 km/h with isolated model runs up to about 100 km/h, plus hail and frequent lightning, raising risks of flash flooding, fallen trees, roof and vehicle damage, and transport disruptions.
- Longer range model guidance from ECMWF and NOAA currently leans toward a milder, wetter December but carries notable uncertainty, while regional drought and low Rhine levels remain separate economic and water‑management concerns.